RESEARCH








Screening & Diagnosis

INTERPRETATION AND USE OF BLOOD LEAD DATA

Dr. T Matte

Introduction

This presentation reviews the interpretation of blood lead data and their use to help monitor and control harmful lead exposure. In particular, the interpretation of blood lead measurements in individuals is considered as well as the use of aggregate data to guide and monitor prevention efforts. I will emphasize blood lead measures in children, the most vulnerable group.

Before considering how blood lead data should be interpreted and used, it is important to consider how blood lead monitoring fits into a comprehensive strategy of monitoring and controlling lead exposure (Figure 1). Lead is one of the most studied environmental toxicants and thus much is known about the causal pathways leading from the production and uses of lead to their ultimate impact on human health. This knowledge allows us to move monitoring efforts "upstream" to identifying ongoing uses of lead (e.g. as a gasoline additive) that are known to lead to widespread excessive exposure. In short, we need not depend on blood lead data as the sole guide to the need for source reduction. In fact, blood lead data can sometimes be misleading for reasons discussed later in this presentation. An overall prevention strategy then, should include monitoring production, modes of consumption, reservoirs (air, water, soil and food), blood lead levels and their effects on health.

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Interpretation of individual blood lead measurements

Health effects benchmarks: As the levels of blood lead increase, its effects become more pronounced. Levels of more than 50 micrograms/dl of lead manifest clinically with death occurring at levels of 150 micrograms/dl. At levels < 50 ug/dL, subclinical effects occur. Most important of these "low-level effects" is impaired cognitive performance and behavioral changes. IQ decrements are associated with increasing blood lead levels, a relationship that is clear above 10 micrograms/dl and probably continues at lower levels. This finding is supported by many studies in diverse populations.

Clinical and public health response to elevated blood lead levels in individual children requires a multi-tier approach. According to CDC guidelines, levels >= 10 micrograms/dl should trigger some preventive measures at the community level. Medical evaluation is recommended when blood lead levels are 20 ug/dL or higher. The need for chelation therapy is widely acknowledged for blood levels more than approximately 45 micrograms/dl. There is less agreement on the value of chelation for children with lower, but still elevated, blood lead levels (i.e. 20-45 ug/dL). However, these blood lead guidelines may not be appropriate in other countries. Protocols for follow-up should be based on sources of exposure, resources for response, and evidence on the efficacy of interventions. In no case should a program of screening and individualized follow-up and treatment (secondary prevention) be a substitute for efforts to identify and reduce sources of lead exposure (primary prevention).

Factors influencing blood lead measurements: Interpretation of individual blood lead levels requires and understanding of factors that affect measurement accuracy and precision. Studies comparing lead measurements of finger-stick and venous blood samples taken from the same individuals show that, with proper collection technique, the average positive bias in a fingerstick sample is less than 1 m g/dL. This is acceptable for screening purposes. Without good technique, however, contamination of fingerstick samples and positive bias will be much greater.

Individual blood lead levels may also vary with age and season, and awareness of these trends must be considered when evaluating changes in blood lead levels over time. In certain populations where there is significant exposure of children to house dust and soil contaminated with lead, there has been an increase in blood lead levels with age beginning at infants < 1 year up to a peak at about 2 years of age. This pattern is apparently related to age-related changes in mouthing behavior and mobility. It is not seen in some populations that have different predominant exposures (e.g. diet). Seasonal variation also affect blood lead levels, which tend to peak in late summer/early fall and are lowest in late winter/early spring. The explanation for this observation is not fully known, but it may reflect seasonal changes in actual exposure.

Lead accumulates in bone where it comprises a high proportion of total body lead burden, especially for chronically exposed individuals. In these data from a study by Hu et al (Figure 2), shows bone lead levels in occupationally exposed adults to be better predicted by their cumulative past lead than by current blood lead level. Past lead exposure can influence current blood lead level through release of lead from bone stores. As a result, when persons chronically exposed to lead have been removed from the offending environment, blood lead levels tend to decrease very slowly over time, due to release of bone lead stores.

Uses of aggregate blood lead data (Figure 3)

Types of data: Just as it is important to understand factors influencing blood lead measures at the individual level, it is also crucial to take into account the type of population sample (Figure 4) before drawing inferences from blood lead data.. Each type may be subject to its own biases and limitations. For example, children who with access to health care and lead screening services may not include the most socially disadvantaged children, who are often at highest risk for lead exposure.

The following sections present some examples of how blood lead data have been used to support prevention efforts.

Targeting high-risk groups: In the NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) III (1988-94) it was found that blood lead levels were high in lower socio-economic populations. In addition, children living in homes built in pre-1946 years, when lead was extensively used in paints, had higher lead levels than those in the post 1946 period when less was added to paint (Figure 5). These findings have helped to target prevention efforts in the U.S.

Monitoring trends: Over time blood lead levels have also decreased as usage of leaded gasoline was phased out. This was demonstrated in the NHANES II study (1976-80), a finding that helped to support the phase out of Pb in gasoline.

Source identification: In a study carried out in Jamaica, nearly 80% of children who stayed in the premises of battery repair shops had blood lead levels greater than 50 ug/dL, much higher than control children. Levels were higher in children than adults probably because of contamination of house dust and soil with lead and hand to mouth behavior of children. Blood lead data were used in Mexico to show a strong relation of use of ceramic food and beverage containers to blood lead levels. In many states, blood lead measurements are reported to the health department where investigations are triggered by high levels. These investigations may reveal new or unusual sources of lead exposure (Figure 6), leading to appropriate preventive measures.

Though blood lead studies have been useful in assessing sources and pathways of lead exposure, they have important limitations (Figure 7). Some sources of lead exposure are difficult to measure precisely (such as lead in diet), others are ubiquitous - all members of a community may be exposed. When either or both factors are present, the contribution of a given source to population lead exposure may be underestimated, or missed altogether. Certain uses of lead may produce little exposure initially, but then cause widespread lead exposure after many years of use. A notable example in the U.S. is leaded paint. When initially applied and well-maintained it may cause less exposure than after years of deferred maintenance and deterioration when children become exposed to resulting paint chips and contaminated house dust. Thus, in the U.S. most cases of childhood lead poisoning due to leaded paint occurs in houses more than 50 years old. Paint used before that time often contained 30-50% lead by dry weight and that same paint is now deteriorated and causing exposure. Thus, if a developing country were beginning to use leaded paint in a rapidly growing housing stock, the consequences may not be evident in a blood lead study done today.

Because of the limitations of blood lead studies, prudent public health policy would be to phase out uses of lead, such as in residential paint, gasoline, water and food cans, that have already demonstrated, after years of use, to cause widespread lead exposure in other countries.

Establishing exposure-response relationships: The most important remaining sources of lead in the U.S. are soil and dust (Figure 8) contaminated mainly by deteriorated house paint and past use of leaded gas. So an important question for us is the relation of levels of lead in contaminated dust to blood lead levels. A recent combined reanalysis (Figure 9) showed a strong relation down to house dust lead levels as low as 10 ug/ft2. This data is enabling the use of dust lead measurements as an alternative to blood lead screening to identify hazardous home environments.

Conclusion

Although blood lead measurements have been invaluable for guiding both individual and community-level prevention efforts, they should only be part of an overall strategy for preventing lead toxicity. In addition, their proper use requires a knowledge of factors that can influence individual levels and population distributions as well as the limitations of blood lead studies for source apportionment. Conclusion, prior to undertaking a blood lead study, consider (Figure 10):

  1. What question is being asked?
  2. What other data or studies might already exist to address the question?
  3. What factors (age, season, measurement techniques) could affect the measurements?

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  1. What is the best type of sample or study design to address the question?

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The following paper was submitted by Dr. Matte as supporting evidence of the above presentation.

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LEAD EXPOSURE FROM CONVENTIONAL AND

COTTAGE LEAD SMELTING IN JAMAICA

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Thomas D. Matte*, J. Peter Figueroa**, Stephanie Ostrowski***, Gregory Burr†, Linnette Jackson-Hunt††, and Edward L. Baker†††

*Office of the Director. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta. Georgia, USA: **Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health. Jamaica: ***Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects. Center for Environmental Health and Injury Control. Centers for Disease Control, †Division of Surveillance. Hazard Evaluations and Field Studies. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Centers for Disease Control. Cincinnati, Ohio. USA; ††Emory University Master of Public Health Program. Atlanta. Georgia. USA and †††Public Health Practice Program Office, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta. Georgia. USA

Abstract. A survey was conducted to determine the distribution and determinants of environmental and blood lead levels near a conventional and several cottage lead smelters and to assess the relationship between environmental and blood lead levels in a tropical, developing-country setting. Fifty-eight households were studied in the Red Pond community, the site of the established smelter and several back-yard smelters, and 21 households were studied in the adjacent, upwind Ebony Vale community in Saint Catherine Parish, Jamaica. Households were investigated, using questionnaires, soil and housedust lead measurements, and blood lead (PbB) measurements from 372 residents. Soil lead levels in Red Pond exceeded 500 parts per million {ppm) at 24% of households (maximum -18.600 ppm), compared to 0% in Ebony Vale (maximum 150 ppm). Geometric mean PbB in Red Pond. where 44% of children <6 years of age had PbB levels ³ 25 micrograms per deciliter (m g/dL), was more than twice that Ebony Vale in all age groups (p < 0.0005). Within Red Pond, proximity to backyard smelters and to the conventional smelter were independent predictors of soil lead (p < 0.05). Soil lead was the strongest predictor of PbB among Red Pond subjects under 12 years of age. The blood lead-soil lead relationship in children differed from that reported in developed countries; blood lead levels were higher than expected for the household-specific soil lead levels that were observed. These data indicate that cottage lead smelters, like conventional ones, are a hazard for nearby residents and that children exposed to lead contamination in tropical, developing countries may be at higher risk for developing elevated blood lead levels than similarly-exposed children in developed countries.

Lead poisoning associated with conventional lead smelting in developed countries has been described among both workers (Lilis et al. 1977) and community residents (Popovac et al. 1982; Landrigan et al. 1975; Brunekreef et al. 1981). While airborne lead fume from smelters is the main vehicle of environmental contamination, the most important route of community lead exposure in such settings appears to be ingestion of lead-contaminated soil and housedust, especially by children (Roels et al. 1980). Children of smelter workers may be at particularly high risk from exposure to lead dust brought home on work clothes (Morton et al. 1982; Baker et al. 1977).

Workers and their families may also be at risk of lead poisoning when lead-related work is done at home. Lead-related cottage industries have caused lead poisoning in both developed (Kawai et al. 1983) and in less developed countries (Koplan et al. 1977), where cottage industries are relatively prevalent (Phoon 1982). Cases of lead-poisoning associated with lead smelting near the home have been reported previously (Dolcourt et al. 1981). However, such establishments are typically scattered and we are aware of no systematic study of lead exposure from cottage lead smelting. The relationship between environmental lead contamination and blood lead levels in children has been extensively studied (Duggan and Inskip 1985), and data from such studies have been used to propose "maximum permissible levels" of lead in soil (Madhavan et al. 1989). However, nearly all previous studies have been carried out in developed countries with temperate climates. Because unintentional soil and dust ingestion may be related to hygiene and to time spent outdoors (Duggan and Inskip 1985), and because lead absorption is influenced by nutrition (Mahaffey 1982), one might expect soil lead-blood lead relationships to differ in tropical, developing countries.

Cottage lead smelters are scattered throughout Jamaica. The clustering of several of these so-called "backyard" lead smelters in a community near a conventional, secondary lead smelter provided the opportunity to assess, during a cross-sectional survey conducted in October 1987, the amount of environmental contamination associated with both cottage and conventional smelting in the same community. In addition, the relationship between environmental contamination and blood lead levels in a tropical, developing country was examined.

Methods

Study Site and Population

The conventional lead smelter ("established smelter") has operated at the southeast corner of the Red Pond Road community (estimated population 2500) since 1963. Reclaiming lead from spent car batteries. The smelter, which usually operated for about two weeks out of every two month period, did not operate during the several weeks before or during the survey. Several crude backyard lead smelters are also known to operate in this relatively poor community, and some residents have reportedly used lead oxide-containing drums and dross (slag) from the established smelter grounds for fencing and landfill material. A middle-class housing development, known as Ebony Vale (estimated population 1600), was recently completed just east of the conventional smelter. Prevailing winds in the area come from the northeast. Lead poisoning cases have been recognized in Red Pond but not in Ebony Vale.

Potential study households were sampled within Red Pond and Ebony Vale by numbering dwellings on community survey maps and selecting dwellings according to a generated list of random numbers. Households with children less than six years of age were over-sampled in Ebony Vale to increase the precision of the mean blood lead estimate in that age group. Survey procedures were completed at 49 Red Pond households (86% of those sampled) and 21 Ebony Vale households (68% of those sampled). Of households sampled but not surveyed, three refused participation (one in Red Pond, two in Ebony Vale) and no adults were at home at 15 households. In addition, all nine households in Red Pond reported by established smelter employees to be at, or adjacent to, backyard smelter sites ("possible backyard smelter" households) were surveyed.

Blood lead measurement was offered for all residents of surveyed households who were at least six months of age. All participating subjects or their adult guardians provided informed consent. Most non-participants were not at home when the dwelling was surveyed. The results of household and subject selection are summarized in Table 1.

Data Collected

At each participating household, a responsible adult was interviewed. Information collected included household income, whether there had been smelting or use of lead oxide drums or lead dross in a yard, and demographic information on household members. Depending on the age of household members, information about occupation, smoking, pica, and time unattended by an adult was also collected. At each household, a one centimeter deep core soil sample in the approximate center of the yard was collected. Lead (Pb) levels in such samples will be referred to as "Pb soil-area". Soil was also sampled near potential sources of lead.

Table 1. Household and subject selection, community lead survey, Saint Catherine Parish, Jamaica, October 1987

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Community_____________________________
Red Pond Ebony Vale
Selection criteria Possible
backyard Random Random
smelter sample sample

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Households
No. participating
(% of those sampled) 9 (100) 49 (86) 21 (68)
Mean household size 5.3 7.6 4.4
Mean household income
(US $/week) 32 42 93
Subjects tested for
blood lead
(% of eligible subjects in
participating households)
By Age:
6 months-5 years 8 (100) 57 (93) 16 (84)
6-11 years 9 (90) 53 (88) 14 (82)
³ 12 years 20 (69) 157 (64) 38 (67)

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contamination, such as oxide drum fencing or lead scrap. The highest soil lead found in each yard will be referred to as "Pb soil-peak". Dust samples were collected. using a published procedure (Vostal et al. 1974), from the center of the floor in the room where children spend the most time. Area soil samples were lost or omitted for five households (four in Red Pond and one in Ebony Vale) and dust samples were lost or omitted at four households (three in Red Pond and one in Ebony Vale). Scrapings of housepaint were taken at households where peeling paint was observed. Blood samples were obtained by venipuncture.

Lead levels in whole blood (Searle et al. 1973) and environmental samples (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health 1984) were measured by published procedures. The limits of quantitation (LOQ) were 5 micrograms per deciliter (m g/dL) for blood lead (PbB), 5 parts per million (ppm or m g/g) for soil lead, 24 m g per square meter (m g/m2) for dust lead (PbD), and 0.01% for paint lead. Samples with lead below the LOQ were assigned a value midway between zero and the LOQ for data analysis.

Data Analysis

Continuous variables were transformed to correct skewness in distributions and apparent non-linear relationships between variables. T-tests and ordinary least squares regression were used to analyze environmental lead data. Blood lead data were analyzed by statistical programs (Shah 1981; Holt 1982) that employ a Taylor series approximation to compute standard errors of estimated means and regression coefficients using households (rather than individuals) as sampling units. Separate analyses were conducted for three age groups: six months through five years (pre-school children), six through 11 years (school-aged children), and 12 years and older ("adult", i.e., beyond the age of compulsory schooling). Multivariate models were arrived at by backwards selection, eliminating the predictors that were least statistically significant by partial F tests until only those significant at the p < 0.05 level remained (Kleinbaum and Kupper 1978).

Table 2. Environmental and blood lead levels at survey households_

Red Pond ______________________Ebony Vale

Possible
backyard Random Random
Measurement smelter sample_ ___ sample

Pb soil-area (ppm) GMc 1089* 133'*** 6
% ³ 500 ppm 75a 24b 0A

Range 9-31.000 < 5-18.600 < 5-150
Pb soil-peak (ppm) GM 7691 ** 221 *** 7
% ³ 500 ppm 89 27 0

Range 9-320.000 <5-520.000 <5-150
Pb dust (m g/m2) GM 2790* 690*** 100
%³ 1500 m g/m2 56 24b 0a
Range 100-109.180 50-294.680 20-338

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Blood Pb (m g/dl),

By age_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

£ 5 years GM 25ns 21'*** 9
% ³ 25 m g/dL 50 44 0
Range < 5-94 5-98 < 5-19
6-11 years GM 62*** 17'*** 7
%³ 25 m g/dL 100 40 7
Range 35-139 <5-95 <5-25
³ 12 years GM 28* 12'*** 5
%³ 25 m g/dL 60 17 3
Range <5-90 <5-85 <5-27

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a Missing for 1 household

b Missing for 3 households

c GM = geometric mean

P values for differences in geometric means, possible backyard smelter compared with randomly-selected Red Pond households and randomly-selected Red Pond households compared with Ebony Vale households: *p < 0.05. **p < 0.005. ***p < 0.0005. NS = not significant.

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Results

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Environmental and Blood Lead Levels

Geometric mean Pb soil-area. Pb soil-peak, and Pb dust were 22, 31, and 7 times, respectively, higher in Red Pond than Ebony Vale (p < 0.0005, Table 2). Furthermore. 24% of randomly selected Red Pond households had soil lead levels greater than 500 ppm. a threshold above which elevated blood lead levels in children are said to occur (Centers for Disease Control 1985). In contrast, the highest soil lead level in Ebony Vale was 150 ppm, and 14 Ebony Vale households had Pb soil-area levels below 5 ppm. Geometric mean Pb soil-peak was 30 times higher at possible backyard smelter households than at other Red Pond households (p < 0.005), and four possible backyard smelter households had Pb soil-peak levels greater than 50,000 ppm. Peeling housepaint was observed at one Ebony Vale and 27 Red Pond households. Ten samples exceeded 1% lead by weight (maximum 6.0%), all from Red Pond.

Among subjects of randomly-selected households, geometric mean PbB was significantly higher in Red Pond than Ebony Vale in each age group (p < 0.0005, Table 2), and decreased with age in both communities. Elevated PbB (³ 25 m g/dL (Centers for Disease Control 1985) levels were common in Red Pond (44% of children under six years) but unusual in Ebony Vale. The prevalence of elevated PbB was higher among subjects at possible backyard smelter households than at randomly-selected Red Pond households, and the geometric mean PbB levels were significantly higher at smelter households among subjects six through 11 years (p < 0.0005) and subjects 12 and older (p < 0.05).

Determinants of Environmental and Blood Lead Levels

The soil and dust levels in Ebony Vale, being low and quite uniform, were not significantly correlated with either proximity to the conventional smelter (Figure l) or to blood lead levels. Because of this and because there were no cottage smelters in Ebony Vale, the analyses reported below were limited to the Red Pond community. For these analyses, households were classified as confirmed backyard smelter sites (7 households), suspected smelter sites (4 households), or non-smelter sites (all others) according to questionnaire responses and/or field observations, regardless of why the households were sampled. Two additional smelter sites were confirmed just outside of the community.

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e observed or reported contamination by solid lead waste:

yes=1

no= 0

f NS = not significant, dropped by

backwards elimination

g NA = not applicable or not assessed in

model

 

Table 3. Correlation coefficients (r) between environmental lead, distances to smelters, and blood lead levels in the Red Pond community

 


Pb Pb Pb
soil-areaa soil-peaka dusta

 


N Households: 54 58 55
Backyard smelter distanceb -0.77*** -0.74*** -0.63***
Stack distanceb - 0.58*** - 0.45*** - 0.28*
Blood lead levelsa, by age
(N subjects)c
£ 5 years (N = 62) 0.75*** 0.74*** 0.57***

6-11 years (N = 52) 0.71*** 0.69*** 0.37

³ 12 years (N = 156) 0.56*** 0.59** 0.42**

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a log.transformed

b square-root transformed

c only includes subjects in households with no missing environmental levels
P values for correlation Coeffiecients: *p<0.05, **p < 0.005, *** p< 0.0005

In assigning "sectors" of direction from the established smelter for sub sequent analyses, the northeast and southeast quadrants were combined because of small numbers and similar environmental lead levels. The northwest quadrant was divided into two sectors because most study households were in that quadrant. Higher Pb soil-area in Red Pond clustered near both the established smelter and backyard smelter sites (Figure 1). Despite the prevailing wind direction, higher levels were also found near the road running northwest from the established smelter past four backyard smelter sites. Univariate analysis was consistent with the observed spatial pattern as soil and dust lead levels were strongly and negatively correlated with square-root-transformed distances to the nearest confirmed backyard smelter and to the smelter stack (Table 3). The correlations were stronger with backyard smelter distance.

In multivariate models (Table 4), significant, independent predictors of soil lead levels were: distance to the nearest backyard smelter, distance and direction from the smelter stack, and lead waste contamination (smelting, dross landfill, or lead oxide drum fencing in a yard). Together, these variables explained 82% of the variance in Pb soil-area and 75% of the variance of Pb soil-peak. Direction from the smelter stack and Pb soil-area explained 59% of the variance in Pb dust levels. Adjusted for other covariates, the highest soil lead levels occurred in the southwest quadrant, downwind from the stack, while the highest dust levels occurred in the north-northwest quadrant. Lead level in peeling paint was not an independent predictor of soil or dust lead levels.

Analyses of predictors of blood lead within Red Pond included those 51 households (270 subjects) for which soil lead and house dust lead were obtained. In each age group, blood lead was more strongly correlated with soil lead than with dust lead (Table 3). The relationship with soil lead was strongest among children under 6 years of age (r = 0.75, p < 0.0005, F 2).

In multivariate models (Table 5) Pb soil-area was a significant (p < 0.05) independent predictor of PbB among subjects less than six years and 6-11 years of age, but not among older subjects. Pb soil-area was the only significant predictor of PbB among children 6-11, explaining 5 I% of the variance in PbB. Among children under six, PbB also varied with direction from the established smelter, and increased with the percent of a household yard that was covered by bare soil. Among subjects 12 and older, distance to a backyard smelter, occupation, and sex were significant, independent predictors of blood lead.

Discussion

This survey documented environmental lead contamination and elevated blood lead levels in the Red Pond Road Community. The lead hazard there is related, in part, to a well-known source: conventional, secondary lead smelting (Landrigan et al. 1975; Brunekreef et al. 1981; Roels et al. 1980). The spatial distribution of soil and dust lead levels in Red Pond also showed that a less familiar cottage industry, "backyard" lead smelting, causes high level lead exposure for nearby residents. While the efficiency of the backyard smelting process has not been formally studied, such operations may reclaim as little as 30% of the lead in scrap; much of the remainder is discarded in heavily-contaminated dross skimmed from the molten lead. In addition to fallout from lead fume generated by smelting, lead contamination may be spread by lead dust that is blown or tracked from piles of dross or lead scrap at backyard smelter sites. The limited impact of lead smelting in Ebony Vale is probably due partly to wind direction near the established smelter and to dilution of lead contamination by the more recent grading of land in that community. In addition, cottage smelters were found only in the older, poorer Red Pond community.

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Use of lead oxide drum fencing or dross landfill in Red Pond yards was also associated with contamination of whole yards (high area soil lead levels), while leaded paint did not appear to be an important cause of dust or soil contamination in the area studied. The strong relationship between soil and dust lead levels and the high house dust lead levels along the road running northwest from the smelter suggest that tracking of lead-contaminated dust into dwellings is an important source of housedust contamination in Red Pond, as has been noted elsewhere (Bornschein et al. 1985).

Lead-contaminated soil appears to be a major vehicle of lead absorbed by children in Red Pond. This is supported by increased blood lead levels and stronger correlations between soil and blood lead in children--who tend to ingest more soil and absorb more lead--than in adults (Duggan and lnskip 1985). Pica was not predictive of increased blood lead levels in children in multivariate analysis. As in other studies near smelters (Landrigan and Baker 1981), unintentional soil ingestion from normal hand to mouth behavior is

probably a more common source of absorbed lead among Red Pond children than is true pica.

The soil lead/blood lead relationship for children in Red Pond differed from that expected from guidelines and surveys in developed countries. A model derived from surveys near two smelters in the United States predicts a geometric mean PbB of 11 m g/dL among children less than six years old at a soil lead level of 500 ppm (Schilling and Bain 1988). In contrast, the univariate model of blood vs. soil lead in Red Pond children predicts a geometric mean PbB of 32 m g/dL among children under age six years at a soil lead level of 500 ppm.

In reviewing data from published studies, Madhavan et al. (1989) proposed as a "worst case" relationship for the blood lead/soil lead relationship an 8.59 m g/dL increase in PbB above "background" per 1,000 ppm of lead in soil. From the multivariate model for Red Pond children under age 6, the minimum predicted increase in geometric mean blood lead above background is 18 m g/dL at a soil level of 1,000 ppm.

Table 5. Multivariate models of blood lead (PbB) by age in the Red Pond community

Dependent variable-PbBa by age (years): £ 5 6--11 ³ 12

Model characteristics
Number of subjects 62 52 156
Variance explained (r2) 0.68 0.51 0.35
Y intercept 0.63 0.58 1.38
Beta and (se) of variables in final modelsb
Pb soil-areac 0.27 (0.03) 0.31 (0.03) NS
Bare soild 0.0025 (0.0005) NS NS
Backyard smelter distancee NSr NS - 0.04 (0.01)
Male sex NS NS 0.14 (0.05)

Direction from smelter stack:
north-northwest 0.16 (0.08) NS NS
east 0.20 (0.08)
southwest -0.12 (0.08}

Occupation
established smelter worker NAg NA 0.29 (0.06)

backyard smelter worker 0.06 (0.10)

a log 10 (m g/dL)

b Variables which remained after backwards elimination of variables not significant at p < 0.05 level. Starting models included variables shown in table, variables from multivariate analysis of environmental levels {Table 41. located at smelter site, and household income. According to age group, starting models also included: current cigarette smoking for subjects 12 and older; frequency of play near a smelter for subjects 12 and under: pica, part of day unattended by an adult, and age (£ 2 years, 3-5 years} for subjects 5 and under.

c log10 (ppm)

d % of yard

e meters0.5

NS = not significant, dropped by backwards elimination

NA = not applicable or not assessed in model

Differences in soil lead/blood lead relationships observed across studies in developed countries may be due to several factors, such as differences in sampling methods, incomplete or inaccurate measurement of non-soil exposure sources, and differences in bioavailability of lead from different sources (Duggan and Inskip 1985). Such factors could account for much of the discrepancy between the findings of this study and those reported near other smelters. It is also possible, however, that children in Red Pond ingest and absorb more lead from soil than children in developed countries with temperate climates because of differences in time spent outdoors, hygiene, and nutrition. Duggan and Inskip (1985) proposed such factors as explaining differences in the soil lead/blood lead relationship found in different settings in developed countries, and one would expect even greater differences in these determinants of lead exposure and absorption in developing countries. This suggests that environmental health criteria for soil lead in developed countries may not be protective in developing countries.

Among subjects age 12 and older, occupational exposure to lead smelting was associated with higher blood lead levels. It is possible that backyard smelter work was not always reported and that male sex and proximity to backyard smelters, which were also predictive of higher blood lead, were proxies for smelter work by some individuals.

Certain limitations of this study are evident. First, air lead levels could not be measured during smelter operation, and their impact on blood lead levels could not be he assessed. Second, because of small sample size and collinearity between many study variables, some variables may contribute to environmental or blood lead but not be statistically significant in multivariate models. Third, imprecise measurement of certain study variables may have diluted real associations. Therefore, our analyses indicate the strongest determinants -but not the only ones-of environmental and blood lead in the Red Pond Road community.

The "epidemic" of elevated blood lead levels in Red Pond is not large compared to those reported near other smelters, but it is a major public health problem for this community. Data from this survey indicate that 44% of the estimated 390 children aged six months through five years in the Red Pond Road community have blood lead levels 25 m g/dL or greater, currently defined as "elevated" for screening purposes (Centers for Disease Control 1985). Neurobehavioral effects in children have been observed at blood lead levels of approximately 10-15 m g/dL and above (Bellinger et al. 1987; McMichael et al. 1988), and the definition of an elevated level may soon be revised downward (Falk and Ing 1988). The findings of this survey have significance beyond a single community, because backyard lead smelters are not limited to the area surveyed. It is estimated about one third of spent lead-acid batteries in Jamaica are used by backyard recyclers or by small battery repair shops--where the lead is frequently smelted as well-scattered throughout the island. Because the social and economic conditions that encourage home lead smelting (and other lead-related cottage industries) are found in other developing countries, childhood and occupational lead poisoning from such activities may also occur elsewhere.

Acknowledgments. The authors thank the residents of the Red Pond Road and Ebony Vale communities for their cooperation during the survey. Reprinted with permission from Arch. Environ. Contam.xicol. 21 65-71 (1991).

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